The Mastercard Economics Institute [MEI] has released its Economic Outlook 2026. It outlines the forces likely to shape the global economy over the year ahead. The MEI 2026 report argues that policy shifts and trade changes that dominated headlines in 2025 will continue to influence growth, prices and investment decisions in 2026.
For Sub-Saharan Africa, the outlook is more positive than in recent years. MEI expects growth to strengthen as inflation pressures ease, consumer demand holds up and infrastructure spending continues. Lower energy prices and a softer US dollar are expected to provide added relief for several economies.
Kenya is highlighted as one of the more resilient markets in the region. According to the report, solid domestic demand, rising digital inclusion and more diversified trade ties should help support growth. Inflation is forecast to remain moderate, creating room for the central bank to ease interest rates if conditions allow.
MEI 2026: A Constructive Year for Kenya’s Economy
“The economic outlook for Kenya in 2026 is broadly constructive as the country continues to demonstrate impressive adaptability in a rapidly shifting global environment,” said Khatija Haque, Chief Economist for EEMEA at the Mastercard Economics Institute. She cautioned, however, that global trade tensions, commodity price swings and high public debt could still limit fiscal space across parts of the region.
A key theme in the report is the shift in global trade. As supply chains are reorganized, Kenya is trading more with emerging markets. China’s removal of import duties on most African goods is expected to open new opportunities for exporters, while deeper ties with Asia and the Middle East could help reduce reliance on traditional markets.
Digital transformation is another major tailwind. MEI points to growing adoption of digital tools and artificial intelligence as potential drivers of productivity. Governments across Africa are also expanding infrastructure investment to support long-term growth.
Small and medium-sized enterprises remain central to the outlook. Digital tools are helping SMEs cut costs and reach new customers, but MEI notes that agility and digital readiness will be critical. Those that adapt fastest are likely to capture growth in tech-driven services.
The report draws on public data and aggregated, anonymized Mastercard sales data to assess global and regional economic trends.
